Long-range severe weather risks in Australia: what the experts are predicting
Australia’s weather risks are changing, and those risks can be different depending on where you live. Based on insights from the Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO, this article breaks down key trends including heat, heavy rainfall, bushfires and cyclones, and what it could mean for homeowners, businesses and communities.
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Extreme weather is part and parcel of living in Australia, but the sheer scale of the country means different regions face different threats at different times.
Analysis from the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) and CSIRO shows long-range risks are changing over time, with more extreme heat, more intense rainfall, longer fire seasons and an evolving cyclone risk.
The impact they’ve predicted depends heavily on location, with potential impacts for insurers, brokers, businesses and communities.
Regional weather risks
South-west Australia: a drying climate system
In the south-west of the country, declining rainfall is the key trend over the past 50 years. Since 1970, rainfall in April-October has fallen by around 16%, with winter rainfall dropping even further, by 20%.1
The result of this is a progressively drier landscape, reduced soil moisture, lower stream flows and increased heat exposure. There’s also a higher likelihood of water scarcity, agricultural pressures and heat related incidents.
Northern Australia: increased flood and cyclone risks
While rainfall has decreased in the south-west, in the northern areas of Australia, the opposite is happening.
During the wet season (October to April) rainfall has been around 20% higher than the 20th century average since 1994,2 with heavy rainfall events becoming more intense.
At the same time, there’s been a change in tropical cyclone patterns across the country, with the total number of cyclones declining since the 1980s.3
Southern Australia: escalating bushfire risks
According to the BOM, there’s been an increase in extreme fire weather and the length of the fire season in large parts of Australia since the 1950s. This has led to larger and more frequent fires – particularly in the southern regions.4
Wetter conditions in northern and central regions, meanwhile, can lead to larger, grassy fuel loads.5
As well as the drier landscape in the south-west, the south-east has also seen a decrease in cool-season rainfall since the mid-1990s,6 contributing to conditions conducive to fire.
Severe weather predictions for Australia
Long-range weather risks are changing, so it’s important to know what’s predicted over the coming years.
Extreme heat and heatwaves
Australia has warmed by around 1.51°C since 1910,7 and across all regions, temperatures are projected to rise – with more very hot days and fewer cooler days.8
Bushfire weather to increase, leading to longer fire seasons
Fire seasons are becoming longer and more intense across much of southern and eastern Australia. The number of high-risk fire weather days is increasing, driven by higher temperatures, lower humidity and changing rainfall patterns.9
For tips on how to prepare for bushfires, see our downloadable checklist.
More intense rainfall and flooding
Heavy rainfall events are becoming more intense, even in the regions where rainfall is declining.10 Short-duration rainfall extremes have increased by 10% or more in some regions, with the largest increases seen in the north of the country.
These events can lead to flash flooding. Looking ahead, the BOM predicts we’ll see more intense, short-duration heavy rainfall, even in regions where the average rainfall decreases or stays the same.11
For tips on how to prepare for floods, see our downloadable checklist.
More intense cyclones expected
While the overall frequency of cyclones is projected to decline, a greater proportion of those are expected to be more intense, with the associated rainfall set to rise too.
For example, Queensland’s Tropical Cyclone Alfred in 2025 was one of the most significant weather events in Australia’s recent history, bringing with it destructive winds, rain and flash flooding.12
For tips on how to prepare for cyclones, see our downloadable checklist.
The economic impact of extreme weather
Extreme weather events can have a major impact, placing increased pressure on local communities, businesses, insurers and the wider economy.
For households, that can mean property damage, temporary displacement and unexpected out-of-pocket costs. For businesses, it can lead to disrupted operations, damaged premises or stock, supply chain delays, loss of income and lengthy recovery periods.
For brokers and insurers, large claims volumes, increasing repair costs and complex risk environments can add further pressure, highlighting the importance of understanding changing weather patterns and being prepared.
According to the Insurance Council of Australia (ICA), the cost of extreme weather events has increased significantly in recent times. Over the past 30 years, insurers paid out an average of $2.1 billion per year (adjusted for inflation) while over the last five years, that figure has been $4.5 billion.13
Flooding is a key driver of this increase, with the average annual cost of flood damage alone rising from an annual average of $620 million to $2.2 billion in the same period,14 underlining the frequency and severity of flooding events.
No matter how you’ve been affected by a weather event, having an experienced insurer by your side means more than financial support. It’s about having someone who understands the challenges, and helps you navigate the recovery process to get you back on your feet.
At QBE, our customers are at the heart of everything we do, and we’re ready to support you every step of the way.
Our responsive team is here for you
Getting the right people to the right places at the right time is critically important for a strong response to a natural disaster. Megan Schembri-Green, Performance and Catastrophe Management Lead at QBE coordinates the immediate response.
“When an event is predicted, we put together a team to plan for the worst case scenario. We assess the situation and put plans in place as to what we need to do right now, and what we may need to do depending on what happens in reality,” Schembri-Green said.
“For example, if there’s a cyclone approaching, we’ll send out targeted information to customers about staying safe, what’s happening now, and what might happen.
“We’ll also identify which loss adjusters are in the area, who we need to preauthorise for work, and who the best people are internally to redeploy to the location of an event, should we need boots on the ground.”
How technology helps to aid response
Technology plays an important role in QBE’s response too, with geo site mapping tools providing footage for internal data analysts to overlay information about, for example, how many policy holders are in a specific area.
This helps the catastrophe response team understand the number of customers potentially affected.
Affected customers see the true value of insurance
While the team is there to help people navigate through some of life’s most difficult times, Schembri-Green says the feedback from customers reinforces the importance of having the right insurance.
“After an event, when customers genuinely realise the value of insurance – one thing that really sticks with me is a customer who saw the difference between themselves, their neighbour who was underinsured, and another neighbour who was uninsured.”
“We’ve had some big events this year already that have seen whole communities impacted, and when you have customers saying ‘Oh, thank goodness’, it really reinforces the value.”
Of course, severe weather is a part of life in Australia, and the right insurance can provide a safety net if an event impacts your property or your business. It’s a good idea to check you have adequate cover in place before the next severe weather event hits.
Finally, to ensure you’re prepared for severe weather, stay tuned for local updates, and see the downloadable checklists and more information on our Severe Weather Support hub.
Get a quote or contact your broker.
1 State of the Climate 2024 | Bureau of Meteorology (BOM)
2 State of the Climate 2024 | Bureau of Meteorology (BOM)
3 State of the Climate 2024 | Bureau of Meteorology (BOM)
4 State of the Climate 2024 | Bureau of Meteorology (BOM)
5 State of the Climate 2024 | Bureau of Meteorology (BOM)
6 State of the Climate 2024 | Bureau of Meteorology (BOM)
7 Australia’s changing climate | CSIRO
8 State of the Climate 2024 | Bureau of Meteorology (BOM)
9 State of the Climate 2024 | Bureau of Meteorology (BOM)
10 State of the Climate 2024 | Bureau of Meteorology (BOM)
11 State of the Climate 2024 | Bureau of Meteorology (BOM)
12 2025 Tropical Cyclone Alfred – recovery operation | Queensland Reconstruction Authority
13 Insurance Catastrophe Resilience Report 2023–24 | Insurance Council of Australia
14 Insurance Catastrophe Resilience Report 2023–24 | Insurance Council of Australia